Reel Matt

This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.

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Oscar Predictions

This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com

91st Academy Awards - Predictions

Ninety-first Academy Awards, and the seventh I’m around making predictions for it. With the 86th Academy Awards being the outlier, where I correctly predicted 22 out of 24 nominees, all other years have netted me either 16 or 17 correct predictions out of 24, good for a D+ or a C- on a letter scale — not good! And with a lot of uncertainly this year from a mixed bag of results in the Guild Awards, the path for the “Most Deserving” nominations is not clear. I am posting this pretty early (the Saturday morning before counts as early, right?), but I did not spend as much time pouring over lists of predictions over the web and cross-referencing with the Guild award winners. That is to say I’m pretty lukewarm on my chances this year. We’ll see how I do.

Thanks to my new AMC A-List subscription, I managed to catch all the Best Picture nominees except for Black Panther (which I saw last March when it was released), and BlacKkKlansman and Bohemian Rhapsody. Oh, and Roma which I missed in the very limited-release in theaters and had to watch on Netflix. The further down the ballot you go though, the less coverage I have on the nominees — the acting categories specifically. Save for nominees who also have a Best Picture nominee, I haven’t seen the films, so my “Most Likely” picks are with limited information.

I’ve come to learn my yearly prediction/public wishing that this will be the year I restart this blog in vain aren’t completely accurate (almost not at all). So this year, I’m trying for a more realistic wish/hope that I pay more attention and do a better job at watching the acting nominees for next year’s Oscars. I got myself to see more of the Best Picture nominees each year, now I want to see more of the down-ballot nominees.

Actual winners listed in bold. Final tally: 17/24 correct.


BEST PICTURE

Academy Awards

Film
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Most Deserving: Roma

Most Likely: Roma

Why: The only thing everyone can seem to agree on is Best Picture is really up for grabs. Roma and Green Book seem to have taken on front-runner status because they’ve won some of the bigger precursor awards, but there is no real consensus. And since opinions are all over the place, it is likely the winner will be decided by the preferential ballot voting which could wind up giving the Oscar to a more obscure choice.

As I mentioned in my recent reviews, Roma is far and away my number one choice. Alfonso Cuaron told a simple story in a gripping and technically masterful way. It should be a lock for the Best Foreign Language film, which could make voters want to choose something else here. If Roma does win, it will be the first foreign language film to do so. While I also have Roma winning some other Oscars, my gut feeling is if it does win a lot early in the evening, we might be in for a different Best Picture winner. Green Book was the second most popular choice from critics, but I might go with A Star Is Born or Black Panther as more popular/appealing choices for a preferential-voting system.


BEST DIRECTOR

Director Film
Alfonso Cuarón Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos The Favourite
Spike Lee BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay Vice
Paweł Pawlikowski Cold War

Most Deserving: Alfonso Cuarón

Most Likely: Alfonso Cuarón


BEST ACTOR

Actor Film
Christian Bale Vice
Bradley Cooper A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen Green Book

Most Deserving: Bradley Cooper

Most Likely: Rami Malek


BEST ACTRESS

Actress Film
Yalitza Aparicio Roma
Glenn Close The Wife
Olivia Colman The Favourite
Lady Gaga A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Most Deserving: Olivia Colman

Most Likely: Glenn Close


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Actor Film
Mahershala Ali Green Book
Adam Driver BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell Vice

Most Deserving: Mahershala Ali

Most Likely: Mahershala Ali


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Actress Movie
Amy Adams Vice
Marina de Tavira Roma
Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone The Favourite
Rachel Weisz The Favourite

Most Deserving: Emma Stone

Most Likely: Regina King


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Film Writer(s)
The Favourite Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed Paul Schrader
Green Book Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma Alfonso Cuarón
Vice Adam McKay

Most Deserving: Green Book

Most Likely: The Favourite


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Film Writer(s)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, based on their short stories
BlacKkKlansman Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, based on the memoir Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel
If Beale Street Could Talk Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin
A Star Is Born Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

Most Deserving: A Star Is Born

Most Likely: BlacKkKlansman


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Most Deserving: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Most Likely: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse


BEST FOREIGN FILM

Film Country
Capernaum Lebanon
Cold War Poland
Never Look Away Germany
Roma Mexico
Shoplifters Japan

Most Deserving: Roma

Most Likely: Roma


BEST DOCUMENTARY

Film
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Most Deserving: Minding the Gap

Most Likely: Free Solo


BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

Film
“Black Sheep”
“End Game”
“Lifeboat”
“A Night at The Garden”
“Period. End of Sentence.”

Most Deserving: N/A

Most Likely: “Period. End of Sentence.”


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Film
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Most Deserving: The Favourite

Most Likely: Black Panther


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Song Film Artist
“All the Stars” Black Panther Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith
“I’ll Fight” RBG Diane Warren
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” Mary Poppins Returns Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman
“Shallow” A Star Is Born Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Most Deserving: “Shallow”

Most Likely: “Shallow”


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Film Composer
Black Panther Ludwig Göransson
BlacKkKlansman Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns Marc Shaiman

Most Deserving: First Man, Justin Hurwitz

Most Likely: If Beale Street Could Talk

Why: I get it. The Academy does not seem to like my picks of loud, in-your-face, electronic at parts, and especially if it is for a space movie. They passed over Hans Zimmer’s Interstellar and Dunkirk and Jóhann Jóhannsson’s Sicario, three of my last four Best Original Score picks. Not that I’m bitter. And even if Justin Hurwitz’s First Man was nominated this year, it probably wouldn’t have won for similar reasons. And I am bitter about it not even receiving a nomination because it was some of the best music work I have hear all year. That soundtrack is on frequent rotation when I’m at work and still brings the goosebumps when I hear the Apollo rocket launch sequence.

All I can say is I at least was happy to see this make a few of the “Oscar snubs” lists; that at least means other people felt the same way I do. Of the remaining ones, I only saw Black Panther, so I can’t really speak for the nominees. The consensus seemed to be between BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street with a slight edge for the latter.


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Film
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Most Deserving: N/A

Most Likely: Vice


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Film
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Most Deserving: The Favourite

Most Likely: Black Panther


BEST FILM EDITING

Film
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Most Deserving: The Favourite

Most Likely: Bohemian Rhapsody

Why: The Favourite wasn’t my favorite film of the year, but I really appreciated a lot of the things it did. Visually and technically The Favourite was quite stunning (as was Roma), and the editing was a big reason I enjoyed the film as much as I did. The story gets weird towards the end and the characters change a lot from the beginning, but the editing was a nice steady hand. It guided me along through the changes and kept the pace at an appropriate level to process everything that was going on. For me, that is a difficult edit to do. Not the action-based, “experimental” editing à la The Bourne Ultimatum win in 2007, but a story-based edit that is a lot more subtle.

On the web, the consensus seemed to be between Bohemian Rhapsody and BlacKkKlansman, again, both of which I have not seen. Tides were shifting in favor of BlacKkKlansman, but Bohemian Rhapsody won the Eddie Award and has the good story behind it — that editor John Ottman saved the film in the editing room from a terrible directing job by Bryan Singer — so that is what I’m going with as my “Most Likely” pick.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Film
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

Most Deserving: Roma

Most Likely: Roma


BEST SOUND EDITING

Film
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Most Deserving: First Man

Most Likely: First Man


BEST SOUND MIXING

Film
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Most Deserving: First Man

Most Likely: A Star Is Born


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Film
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robbin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Most Deserving: First Man

Most Likely: Avengers: Infinity War


BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Film
“Animal Behaviour”
“Bao”
“Late Afternoon”
“One Small Step”
“Weekends”

Most Deserving: N/A

Most Likely: “Bao”


BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Film
“Detainment”
“Fauve”
“Marguerite”
“Mother”
“Skin”

Most Deserving: N/A

Most Likely: “Skin”